Blocking Ukraine's access to the sea and thus preventing maritime trade is an element of Russia's strategy in the current war. There were attempts to limit Ukraine's capabilities even before the full-scale invasion began. Nevertheless, Ukraine managed to maintain the operation of the maritime corridor to the ports of Greater Odesa, largely thanks to the efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which began to deal significant blows to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Of course, such actions can only irritate the aggressor. Many perceived the targeted missile strikes on Ukrainian ports and ships docked there in the autumn as evidence of the aggressor country's attempt to make Ukrainian maritime exports impossible - if not through outright destruction, then by intimidating shipowners, increasing logistics costs, and reducing its competitiveness in the global market. Yet the maritime corridor continues to operate. What should Ukraine do if the situation escalates again?
Prioritize Port Protection
"Despite Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, including civilian ships and grain storage facilities, Ukraine remains a guarantor of global food security," said Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for Development and Minister of Development of Communities and Territories Oleksii Kuleba during a visit to Odesa on 22 October. The visit was in response to Russia's new tactic of targeting Ukraine's Black Sea corridor. The minister also said that 86 ships intended to enter Ukraine's deep-water ports despite the Russian attacks. The immediate response to the situation was positive, but the question remains whether the measures taken are sufficient.
"During the visit to Odesa, there was a meeting on ensuring the stable functioning of Ukraine's maritime corridor, a key element of our infrastructure... The priority is to protect critical infrastructure, including organizing operations and coordinating efforts to secure coastal facilities and port waters. We are currently making every effort to ensure reliable protection of ports while increasing export volumes," said Deputy Minister of Development of Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure Timur Tkachenko.
"As a result of the official visit, we are strengthening defense measures in each port. We are implementing additional measures to increase defense and security," Kuleba added. For obvious reasons, he did not announce any specific measures to protect the ports.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has been more specific. In response to the intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in the Black Sea, the UK government announced that it was donating an additional GBP 120 million (over USD 155 million) toward the Maritime Capability Coalition and seeking partners to co-fund the delivery of hundreds more maritime drones (aerial and unmanned boats) and surveillance radars to protect the maritime corridor.
Dear Partners
Is it possible to stop the aggressor's actions more radically here and now? The answer seems obvious: retaliatory strikes.
"I believe that strikes against Russian oil tankers are necessary. We have attacked a tanker before. It was the first and last time, but the intensity of the attacks on Odesa, including the port, decreased after that. Then things went back to the way they were. Today, a ballistic missile with cluster munitions hit Odesa, killing 8 people! We have to react now. The oil and gas sector is Putin's weakest point. We need to strike at his weakest point," Member of Parliament Oleksii Honcharenko (European Solidarity faction) said in comments to the CFTS.
"The only recipe for dealing with this is to either seize or hit every ship carrying oil from Russia," Artem Skorobahatov, a partner at the Interlegal law firm, wrote in a Facebook post commenting on the Russian attack on the port of Chornomorsk with cluster munitions during the loading of a container ship.
It is worth recalling that the opening of the Black Sea corridor from Ukrainian ports became possible after Ukraine's successful attacks on the landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak in the port of Novorossiysk and a Russian oil tanker near the Kerch Strait. These events underscore that force remains the only language Russia understands.
The successful attacks on Russian warships and boats previously carried out by the Ukrainian military and intelligence services indicate that damaging a tanker carrying Russian oil would not be difficult. So why are the Ukrainian "guns" silent?
The answer may lie with Ukraine's Western partners. It is possible that, as with strikes on Russian oil refineries, the idea of harming ships carrying Russian cargo is not looked upon favorably somewhere on Capitol Hill. American oil companies, for example, have vested interests in the Black Sea region.
Chevron and ExxonMobil, for example, are involved in oil production in Kazakhstan, from where oil is exported through the Russian port of Novorossiysk. "In other words, Russia tightly controls the flow of American companies' oil out of Kazakhstan. Do you want to keep your profits, American oilmen? Then act in a way that makes you and us feel good. Otherwise, we will turn off the spigot. Exxon's corporate report clearly states: '... In the event that Russia takes countermeasures in response to existing sanctions related to its military actions in Ukraine, it is possible that the transportation of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline could be disrupted, curtailed, temporarily suspended, or otherwise restricted. In such a case, the corporation could experience a loss of cash flows of uncertain duration,'" said Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies.
"Chevron is not too worried about possible 'Russian revenge.' It is much easier for it to solve the problem through its chain of people and lobbyists in Washington than to deal with diversifying the routes for exporting 30 million tons of oil extracted from Kazakhstan, bypassing Russia," the expert added.
So, whether Ukraine will strike back obviously depends either on the consent of its "partners" or on when the patience of the Ukrainian government and military leadership runs out.
In the meantime, diplomacy?
It is clear that Ukraine - as the victim of the aggressor - is trying to fight the war according to certain rules, and that its attacks on enemy merchant ships are a measure of last resort. Yes, it is attacking the navy. In particular, drones operated by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) attacked a naval base in Dagestan for the first time on 6 November. However, this is still not a commercial fleet. Therefore, diplomacy is initially at the forefront.
As one transport market expert told CFTS, the idea of deploying an international monitoring mission in Ukraine's Black Sea ports to document all Russian attacks on port infrastructure and assess the damage caused by these attacks was proposed a year ago. Now, this proposal is finally being discussed at the official level.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha recently held talks with the foreign ministers of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Norway, the state secretaries of Finland's foreign and defense ministries, and the permanent secretary of Iceland's Foreign Ministry. During the talks, Sybiha said that Ukraine has officially appealed to the International Maritime Organization to urgently send an international monitoring mission to the ports of Greater Odesa amid intensified Russian terror.
"Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea is our common goal... We must stop the aggressor, demonstrate the international community’s unity in countering its barbarism, and document every crime," Sybiha said.
This alone will not be enough. Comprehensive measures are needed. CFTS contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to inquire about what additional steps Ukrainian diplomacy plans to take to ensure sustainable maritime exports.
The press service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied that the ministry constantly informs Ukraine’s international partners about national sanctions, including those imposed on Russian maritime and logistics companies, as well as on individuals and legal entities involved in their activities.
"In accordance with the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also raises the issue of implementing similar measures with the countries that are part of the sanctions coalition. These sanctions primarily include asset freezes and a ban on financing and commercial cooperation with sanctioned entities linked to Russia, which significantly weakens its ability to conduct maritime operations," the ministry said in response to the CFTS request.
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is actively working to inform Ukraine's partners about plans to evade sanctions through Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet,' stressing the importance of sanctioning Russian oil and gas tankers to prevent their access to international ports and insurance services," the ministry's press service added.
The press service also assured the CFTS that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in constant contact with Ukraine's international partners, coordinating efforts to block the financial companies providing services to the "shadow fleet" and those involved in its operation. In particular, the need to sanction the captains of the tankers involved in the schemes to evade sanctions is being considered.
For now, the intensive shelling of Ukraine's port infrastructure has stopped (although the shelling of Odesa continues). If Russia hoped to intimidate shipowners and businesses and significantly impact Ukrainian exports, it did not achieve that goal. The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) has reported that 8 million tons of cargo passed through Ukrainian seaports in October 2024, a 60% increase over last year's figures. Industry sources say that there are and will continue to be shipowners willing to call at Ukrainian ports and ports in countries where military conflicts are taking place. However, companies are calculating the risks and are not rushing to change routes just because of the attacks on ports.
We can only speculate why the terrorizing of ports and shipping has stopped so quickly. If it was resolved diplomatically, it was not through the steps being discussed at the official level. Probably it was not without "signals" on another level, including the work of Ukrainian special services, or certain agreements between Ukraine's American partners and their Russian "friends". In any case, the worst expectations have not materialized, and attacks on ports are not being carried out "like clockwork."
In informal conversations within the maritime industry, it is said that Ukraine will respond "symmetrically" if the situation deteriorates again and even Ukraine’s partners disapprove or someone in high places condemns it.
Ultimately, Ukraine has every right to act in its national interest at sea regardless of the reservations of its Western partners (if any). Especially since this is now enshrined in the updated Maritime Strategy signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The Maritime Strategy states that "Russia's terrorist activities affect the interests of Ukraine's maritime industry and inland water transport" and therefore one of the state's goals in ensuring maritime security is "effective counteraction to aggression and adequate response to threats to Ukraine's maritime security, their elimination, or minimization."
