The proportion of Ukrainian goods that was transported on transit through the territory of Russia to other countries in 2015 was approximately 4.5% of the country’s total exports and it was worth about USD 1.6 billion. This is stated in the National Bank of Ukraine’s "Inflationary Report" for January 2016.
According to the report, exports to some countries (for example Belarus, the Baltic countries, and other parts of Europe) can be completely re-oriented to other overland routes without significantly increasing the cost of transportation.
The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that the loss of exports to other countries will total USD 0.46 billion in case of partial rejection of Ukrainian goods as a result of increased cost of transporting them through other routes.
In addition, in connection with the parliament’s adoption of "mirror" sanctions on Russia (the introduction of a food embargo and raising of duties) and the fall in demand for Russian goods in Ukraine, import of goods is expected to fall to USD 3.4 billion in 2016 (including USD 2.5 billion due to energy imports). In this case, assuming that reorientation of supplies from other countries will compensate for a 70-80% reduction of non-energy imports from Russia and that energy imports will be replaced completely, the National Bank of Ukraine estimates that imports will fall by a further USD 0.2 billion.
"Consequently, the overall effect of further deterioration of trade relations with Russia on Ukraine’s balance of trade is estimated at around USD 1.1 billion [in 2016], taking account of reorientation toward other markets and other routes for delivery of goods," the report states.
