One of the goals that Russia is trying to achieve by withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative that established a humanitarian maritime corridor to allow ships to export grain and other foodstuffs from Ukraine is to undermine the socio-economic situations in the European Union and Great Britain by exploiting the protest mood among European population to influence the leaderships of the European Union and Ukraine and incline the latter to negotiate with the Russian Federation on Russia’s terms
Andrii Klymenko, a project manager at the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies, expressed this view at a news briefing in Kyiv, the CFTS portal reports.
He cited excerpts from a Russian analytical note on the closure of the "grain corridor" that was written in the Russian Federation after 29 October, which analysts at the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies obtained through unspecified channels.
"Blocking the supply of grain to the EU in the first stage, until 19 November, and in the following stages will further increase inflation in Europe, especially in Britain. The prices of almost all types of bread and pasta rose by 35-65% in Britain in October... Restriction of Ukrainian grain deliveries by at least 15% will add a cumulative effect of 5-7% to the price increase. This, combined with the increase in heating rates, will bring general inflation to 13-15% in November-December,” Klymenko said, quoting from the Russian analytical note.
According to him, the document also predicts that the inflation rates in Germany, Italy, and France will rise.
In addition, according to him, inflationary processes are expected to provoke mass social discontent and protest moods among the populations in European countries.
According to the expert, the purpose of these actions by Russia is to secure the start of negotiations with it "at least about something." The expert believes that such negotiations should influence Ukrainian troops’ counteroffensive in the Kherson region, where he believes the Russian invaders are in a catastrophic situation. He also believes that Russia’s second goal is to provoke a new jump in the global prices of bread, which will allow Russian grain exporters to earn greater profits.
As reported, Russia announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 29 October. However, 12 ships left Ukrainian ports through the "grain corridor" on 31 October.
