A classified final report on the work of Russia’s representatives in the Joint Coordination Center during the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been prepared for Russia’s top military and political leadership. The text of the document, which Ukrainian intelligence obtained, focuses on the methods used to impede the operation of the Black Sea grain corridor, which ultimately led to the final breakdown of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Russia’s representatives in the Joint Coordination Center saw their primary task as minimizing the amount of grain exported under the grain initiative, the CFTS portal reports.
"The work of the Russian inspectors was built in strict accordance with prepared methodological documents on the organization of ship inspections. Based on the results of the inspections, the participation of 46 vessels in the grain initiative was restricted and the movements of 303 vessels were restricted for a total of 342 days," Rear Admiral Eduard Luyk of the Russian Navy said in the report.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, measures to disrupt the grain deal were divided into several stages. In the first stage, Russia suspended its participation in the grain corridor’s operation from 29 October 22 to 3 November 22 at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initiative. According to the document, this led to a drop in grain exports from 4.2 million tons in October to 2.6 million tons in November. The next stage involved the implementation of measures to restrict the access of ships to the Pivdennyi seaport, reduce the number of inspection teams (not exceeding two), and stop the registration of grain vessels.
These measures allowed the Russians to "effectively restrict the number of ships heading to Ukrainian ports and significantly limit the volume of food exports from Ukraine, which led to Kyiv's inability to export about 20 million tons of cargo."
The Russian report also states that "the smallest amount of food (7.8 million tons) was exported from Ukrainian ports during the third phase of the grain initiative (from 19 March to 17 July 2023).
The report pays special attention to the method that was used to disrupt grain supplies under the World Food Program. "The Ukrainians’ attempts to use the Black Sea Grain Initiative to extend the so-called ‘Grain from Ukraine’ program, using vessels chartered under the World Food Program, were stopped. Such vessels were registered only after written commitments not to take part in such actions were provided," the document states.
"The accumulated archive of knowledge will allow us to achieve a high level of efficiency in the shortest possible time when solving similar problems," the document adds.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the document shows that all the actions to disrupt the grain deal were part of a single plan that was prepared in advance. The targeted attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in recent days are just another step in its implementation.
“Therefore, if the grain deal is extended, the Russians will use all the accumulated ‘experience’ to disrupt the agreements effectively,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate concluded.
Under these circumstances, Ukraine obviously needs to focus not only on extending the grain initiative in any form but also on completely restoring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea for all categories of goods because Russia will use its "accumulated experience" to disrupt any international agreement.
As former Ukrainian infrastructure minister Volodymyr Omelian noted in this context, it is important for Ukraine to receive security guarantees from Turkey to enable it to lift the blockade of its Black Sea ports. According to him, the Ukrainian government should also work more actively with Ukraine’s Western partners on international platforms to uphold freedom of navigation in the region.
Several experts have also expressed the view that the Turkish navy could be useful in upholding the freedom of merchant shipping in the Black Sea.
