Russian grain exporters have suspended conclusion of contracts for supply of grain to Turkey for fear of restrictive measures. The Russian government is expected to make a decision in imposition of sanctions on Turkey on 30 November.
Ukraine could increase export of oil and grain to Turkey if Turkey imposes counter-sanctions and bans import of Russian agricultural products.
According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UCAB), the top 10 Russian agricultural products that were sold on the Turkish market were worth USD 78 million in the entire 2014.
"The deepening of cooperation with Turkey is a timely decision for future diversification of the markets for Ukrainian agricultural products as a result of the Russian embargo," said UCAB expert Oleksandr Kovalchuk.
Ukrainian grain exports to Turkey could increase if Russian traders stopped exporting to the country, the Ukrainian Grain Association’s President Volodymyr Klimenko said in comments to the Interfax Ukraine news agency.
"If Russia stops exports, then the traditional supplier to the country is Ukraine. We have much to export to the country. Not only wheat and corn, but also sunflower oil," said Klimenko.
According to Yelyzaveta Malyshko, a leading grain-market expert at the UkrAgroConsult consulting agency, Turkey is very demanding regarding grain quality and typically buys small shiploads of 3,000-10,000 tons.
"Ukraine exported 400 tons of maize and 105,000 tons of wheat to Turkey in the first four months of the 2015/2016 marketing year. Our exports to that country totaled 329,000 tons of grain in the entire 2014/2015 marketing year, but it will not be a problem to increase them this year," she said.
According to Maria Kolesnik, the head of the analytical department at the AAA consulting company, Russia supplied 5.5 million tons of grain to Turkey in the 2014/2015 marketing year, which is 18% of Russia’s total grain exports.